Brexit won’t happen – here’s why

As Theresa May’s Brexit deal seems very unlikely to pass the House of Commons vote, it seems more and more likely that we will be remaining in the European Union.

There aren’t many options left after the Commons vote on May’s deal and there isn’t enough time to renegotiate an entire new deal.

Firstly, after May’s deal fails, a general election seems very likely – this will already take up a few weeks.

Secondly, even if May stays; if she survives a vote of no confidence, if she survives another general election  – how can she renegotiate an entire new deal in the remaining time? It doesn’t seem doable. It isn’t impossible, but it seems like it.

What would options would this leave? No deal, or Remain.

If Theresa May survives and remains as Prime Minister, would she take Britain out of the European Union with no deal? Or would keep Britain in the European Union? This is a has to be taken in the context that she survived the hypothetical vote of no confidence or the General Election – would she have the mandate to take Britain out of the European Union with No Deal? It doesn’t seem likely because the idea of having a General Election campaign based on taking Britain out of the E.U with no deal just wouldn’t be a hit with voters – it would be as bad, if not worse, as the last General Election where the Tories “Dementia Tax” devastated their 20+ point lead. It just wouldn’t seem likely.

It’s clear that the Labour Party, if they win a hypothetical General Election, would not take Britain out of the European Union with No Deal – very recently John Mcdonnell said that Labour would inevitably have to back a second referendum, with an option to remain in the European Union as part of a General Election campaign. The main issue is will there be time for one? Britain is set to leave by March 2019, can they negotiate an entire new deal if, after another referendum (which would eat up MORE time), Britain voted to leave the European Union?

However you, the readers, interpret it, it cannot be denied that Remain is looking more and more likely. Do watch the short video!

Franglish Politics

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