Jeremy Corbyn has said that he is ready to form a minority government. But as Labour are on 261, potentially on 262 as Kensington could swing to Labour, Labour are more than 60 seats away from forming a majority.
Could Labour form a coalition, or a minority government with other parties voting for a Labour Queen’s speech? Well Labour currently have 261 seats with one seat to declare. Add the SNP’s 35 seats, the Liberal Democrats’ 12 seats, Plaid Cymru’s 4 seats and the Green Party’s 1 seat, it adds up to 313 – that’s short of the Conservatives 318 seats. Even if Labour win Kensington and push that number up to 314, thats still 4 short.
The Conservatives, with DUP MP’s, do reach the 326 seats, the Conservatives have 318 seats, with the DUP on 10 seats – thats 328 seats, a majority of 2 seats, potentially 3 as Kensington is yet to be declared but does look to be going Labour’s way. A majority of 2 or 3 is very very slim – and this is key.
There is no guarantee that all 318 Conservative MP’s will back Theresa May and vote for a Conservative-proposed Queen’s Speech. Despite having a 20-point lead in the polls at the start of the election campaign, Theresa May lost seats – this might be enough for rebellious Conservative MP’s to attempt a coup, and her losing a Queen’s Speech vote would be one way to oust her and replace her with another leader.
If this happens, Labour could afterwards try to seize power and propose a Queen’s Speech. Though its highly unlikely to pass, the same rebellious Tory MP’s would need to abstain in such a vote.
A more likely case is if there is another General Election. Very slim majorities famously don’t last long – so the other obvious option is for Labour to boost the number of seats in another hypothetical election. This might be more possible as Corbyn did prove that he is electable, the parliamentary Labour will be a lot more united and have full confidence in Corbyn as Labour moderates were proven wrong.
The Independent reported how Jeremy Coybn was just 2,227 votes away from having the chance to become Prime Minister, an analysis of marginal seats has revealed – there were a lot of close seats.
One thing is for certain: nothing is certain, everything is still possible.
by Berk Bektas
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