As Labour closes the gap between the Tories – currently at 5% according to the recent YouGov/Times poll, what if the trend of Labour gaining in the polls continues? In which different scenario’s can we see Corbyn becoming Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?
The first obvious scenario is if Labour wins enough seats to form a government. As it stands, Labour have 229 seats, so need to gain 97 seats to get to the 326 seat mark to win the election. But nearly every doubts that this is achievable.
The most realistic way Corbyn can move in to No.10 Downing Street is through a coalition. With this General Election, this seems very possible and very achievable for a number of reasons.
Firstly, the idea that the Liberal Democrats could some how reach an agreement this time round with the Conservatives seems highly unlikely. Brexit is a key issue in this election, and the Liberal Democrats could not negotiate hard brexit with Theresa May, if they did it could spell the end of the party as voters wouldn’t like being fooled twice by the Lib Dems. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are natural allies – it’s only because the numbers didn’t add up in 2010 that they simply couldn’t form a government together, as they wouldn’t have been able to form a majority government, and a minority coalition at the time just didn’t seem popular enough. A deal with the Liberal Democrats would be easier than last time, even if the numbers don’t quite add up. The Lib-dems would need to be looking to make significant gains from mostly Conservative seats which voted Remain.
Secondly, it seems likely that the Scottish National Party will hold onto all of its seats. They’re very anti-austerity, and a natural enemy of the Conservative Party. Arranging a deal with Labour would be a walk in the park. Labour would ideally like to go into coalition with the SNP more than they would with the Liberal Democrats, so winning enough seats to simply go with the SNP would be ideal, but this again, seems highly unlikely. All three parties would need to
Thirdly, even if the three parties don’t come to an official arrangement, they can have a supply-demand deal, where even if, in a hung parliament, the Conservatives are the largest party, a vote of no confidence in Theresa May can bring down her minority government, and she would be forced to allow Corbyn to form the next government.
In terms of the other parties, the Greens will most likely stick to the one MP they have – Caroline Lucas will most definitely back Corbyn all the way, while UKIP, who currently have zero MP’s, will most likely not change either, so good news for Labour on that end.
Labour’s main threat to other parties keeping the Conservatives afloat is the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), whom are the natural allies of the Conservatives and would back them in nearly all situations, even if Northern Ireland voted to remain in the E.U.
The biggest problem Labour currently have is swing UKIP voters. They will hope the dementia tax (which Theresa May has now made a u-turn on, but the damage might have been done) and the Conservative Manifeto’s attack on many benefits OAP’s have such as the triple lock or winter fuel subsides will discourage many older voters who voted UKIP not to go to the Conservatives.
With just under two weeks to go, anything is still possible.
by Berk Bektas
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